How did the same initial investment grow?
From 2016.01.04 to 2026.10.23, an initial $10,000 ended at $44,357 for SPY and $9,145 for TLT. Annualized returns were 14.8% and -0.8%, respectively.
SPY vs TLT ETF Comparison
Set your investment period and amount to compare the returns, growth and risk of two ETFs.
•••
Key comparison
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Annualized return | +14.8% | -0.8% |
| Final value | $44,357 | $9,145 |
| Volatility (annual) | 15.0% | 13.5% |
| Max drawdown · daily | -33.7% | -48.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.85 | -0.20 |
| Expense ratio | 0.09% | 0.15% |
How it grew
SPY has been ahead since 2020.05.
| ETF | Total Return | CAGR | Total invested |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | +343.6% | +14.8% | 10000 |
| TLT | -8.6% | -0.8% | 10000 |
Worst declines
TLT fell further and has not regained its peak yet.
| Compared portfolios | Max drawdown · daily |
|---|---|
| SPY | -33.7 |
| TLT | -48.35 |
Three deepest declines
| Drawdown | Peak date | Trough date | Recovery date |
|---|---|---|---|
| -33.7% | 2020.02.19 | 2020.03.23 | 2020.08.10 |
| -24.5% | 2022.01.03 | 2022.10.12 | 2023.12.13 |
| -19.3% | 2018.09.20 | 2018.12.24 | 2019.04.12 |
| Drawdown | Peak date | Trough date | Recovery date |
|---|---|---|---|
| -48.4% | 2020.08.04 | 2023.10.19 | Ongoing |
| -17.9% | 2016.07.08 | 2016.12.14 | 2019.07.02 |
| -15.7% | 2020.03.09 | 2020.03.18 | 2020.04.21 |
In major sell-offs
Return during each major market decline.
| Event | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2018 Selloff | -19.3% | +4.5% |
| COVID-19 Crash | -33.7% | +14.2% |
| 2022 Rate Hike Bear Market | -24.5% | -29.3% |
Year by year
Over 10 full calendar years, SPY was higher 9 times and TLT 1 times.
| Period | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| 2026Partial year | +12.7% | -8.0% |
| 2025 | +17.7% | +4.3% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | -8.1% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | +2.8% |
| 2022 | -18.2% | -31.2% |
| 2021 | +28.7% | -4.6% |
| 2020 | +18.4% | +18.1% |
| 2019 | +31.2% | +14.1% |
| 2018 | -4.6% | -1.6% |
| 2017 | +21.7% | +9.2% |
| 2016 | +12.0% | +1.2% |
Risk and recovery
Review drawdowns, downside risk, volatility regimes, and recovery speed.
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown · month-end | -23.9% | -47.6% |
| Downside deviation | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Worst Year | -18.2% | -31.2% |
| Longest drawdown | 709 days | 2,271 days |
| Average recovery | 110 days | 138 days |
| Ulcer Index | 6.2% | 26.3% |
| Pain index | 3.3% | 20.7% |
| Historical VaR 95% | 6.7% | 5.9% |
| CVaR 95% | 8.9% | 7.5% |
Risk-adjusted and benchmark
Compare excess return, sensitivity, and tracking behavior against the same benchmark.
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Sortino ratio | 1.35 | -0.27 |
| Calmar ratio · 3Y month-end | 3.00 | -0.01 |
| Omega ratio | 2.10 | 0.98 |
| Martin ratio | 2.40 | -0.03 |
| Difference vs benchmark | +0.0% | -15.6% |
| Alpha | +0.0% | -4.5% |
| Information ratio | — | -0.83 |
| Beta | 1.00 | 0.14 |
| Tracking error | 0.0% | 18.6% |
| Benchmark correlation | 1.00 | 0.16 |
| Up Capture | 100.0% | 6.6% |
| Down Capture | 100.0% | 29.5% |
Period consistency
Check consistency across annual, quarterly, decade, and rolling windows.
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +343.6% | -8.6% |
| Win Rate | 70.5% | 50.4% |
| Best Year | +31.2% | +18.1% |
| Gain/Loss Ratio | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| 1-year rolling minimum | -18.2% | -33.6% |
| 1-year positive windows | 88.1% | 40.7% |
| 3-year rolling minimum | +5.0% | -17.3% |
| 3-year positive windows | 100.0% | 44.7% |
| 5-year rolling minimum | +9.2% | -10.2% |
| 5-year positive windows | 100.0% | 28.6% |
| 10-year rolling minimum | +14.1% | -2.8% |
| 10-year positive windows | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 1-year rolling Sharpe minimum | -0.83 | -3.12 |
| 1-year rolling Sharpe average | 1.22 | -0.22 |
| 1-year rolling Sharpe maximum | 5.14 | 1.97 |
Period return comparison
Check consistency across annual, quarterly, decade, and rolling windows.
| Period | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q4partial | -0.3% | +5.0% |
| 2026 Q3 | +2.4% | -8.9% |
| 2026 Q2 | +15.1% | +0.9% |
| 2026 Q1 | -4.4% | +0.2% |
| 2025 Q4 | +2.7% | -1.0% |
| 2025 Q3 | +8.1% | +2.4% |
| 2025 Q2 | +10.8% | -2.0% |
| 2025 Q1 | -4.3% | +4.9% |
| 2024 Q4 | +2.5% | -9.7% |
| 2024 Q3 | +5.8% | +7.9% |
| 2024 Q2 | +4.4% | -2.0% |
| 2024 Q1 | +10.4% | -3.7% |
| 2023 Q4 | +11.6% | +12.9% |
| 2023 Q3 | -3.2% | -13.1% |
| 2023 Q2 | +8.7% | -2.5% |
| 2023 Q1 | +7.5% | +7.4% |
| 2022 Q4 | +7.6% | -1.9% |
| 2022 Q3 | -4.9% | -10.3% |
| 2022 Q2 | -16.1% | -12.6% |
| 2022 Q1 | -4.6% | -10.6% |
| 2021 Q4 | +11.1% | +3.2% |
| 2021 Q3 | +0.6% | +0.4% |
| 2021 Q2 | +8.4% | +7.0% |
| 2021 Q1 | +6.4% | -13.9% |
| 2020 Q4 | +12.1% | -3.0% |
| 2020 Q3 | +9.0% | -0.1% |
| 2020 Q2 | +20.2% | -0.2% |
| 2020 Q1 | -19.4% | +22.2% |
| 2019 Q4 | +9.0% | -4.7% |
| 2019 Q3 | +1.8% | +8.3% |
| 2019 Q2 | +4.2% | +5.7% |
| 2019 Q1 | +13.5% | +4.5% |
| 2018 Q4 | -13.5% | +4.6% |
| 2018 Q3 | +7.6% | -3.0% |
| 2018 Q2 | +3.6% | +0.5% |
| 2018 Q1 | -1.0% | -3.5% |
| 2017 Q4 | +6.8% | +2.5% |
| 2017 Q3 | +4.4% | +0.3% |
| 2017 Q2 | +3.1% | +4.3% |
| 2017 Q1 | +5.9% | +1.7% |
| 2016 Q4 | +4.0% | -12.6% |
| 2016 Q3 | +3.8% | -0.5% |
| 2016 Q2 | +2.5% | +7.0% |
| 2016 Q1 | +1.3% | +8.7% |
| Period | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| 2020spartial | +15.0% | -4.4% |
| 2010spartial | +14.3% | +5.5% |
Return characteristics
Compare monthly distributions, momentum, asymmetry, and seasonality.
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Skewness | -0.42 | 0.25 |
| Excess kurtosis | 0.68 | 0.15 |
| Longest winning streak | 15 | 5 |
| Longest losing streak | 3 | 7 |
| Average monthly return | +1.3% | +0.0% |
| Monthly return autocorrelation | -0.14 | 0.07 |
| 1M momentum | -0.3% | -5.4% |
| 3M momentum | +2.4% | -8.9% |
| 6M momentum | +17.9% | -8.2% |
| 12M momentum | +15.7% | -9.0% |
| Worst 5% | -6.7% | -5.9% |
| Median | +1.8% | +0.0% |
| Best 5% | +7.6% | +6.9% |
- ETF2 Up / ETF1 Down
- 15
- Both Up
- 51
- Both Down
- 24
- ETF1 Up / ETF2 Down
- 40
- Total
- 130 months
Holdings and costs
Holdings, weights, yield and how much data each result used.
| Metric | SPY | TLT |
|---|---|---|
| Holdings | 1 | 1 |
| Effective holdings | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Largest weight | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Weighted dividend yield | 1.00% | 4.78% |
| Monthly observations | 129 | 129 |
Effective holdings measures weight concentration. It does not represent overlap among the ETFs' underlying holdings.
Questions about these results
When were the deepest drawdowns and recoveries?
SPY: peak 2020.02.19, trough 2020.03.23, drawdown -33.7%, recovery 2020.08.10. TLT: peak 2020.08.04, trough 2023.10.19, drawdown -48.4%, recovery Ongoing.
How did the results differ during market crises?
During COVID-19 Crash, returns were -33.7% for SPY and 14.2% for TLT. During Q4 2018 Selloff, returns were -19.3% for SPY and 4.5% for TLT.
What are the expense ratios and annual costs?
Weighted expense ratios are 0.09% for SPY and 0.15% for TLT. Applied to the initial $10,000, estimated annual costs are $9 and $15.
What are the dividend yields and their basis?
The yields are 1.00% for SPY and 4.78% for TLT. They use distributions from the last 365 days divided by the last closing price and do not predict future distributions.
How similarly do the two portfolios move?
The correlation of shared monthly returns is 0.15: their movements differed substantially.