QQQ 40% · SOXL 40% · SMH 20% CAGR +27.8%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
QQQ + SMH + SOXL
QQQ 40% · SOXL 40% · SMH 20% · U.S. growth · Sector & thematic equity · Leveraged
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $34,101
Invested $10,000
Gain +$24,101
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +27.8%
15.8pp ahead of SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -62.3%
17 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 27%
13 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 3.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +47.1% | +17.7% | -30.5% |
| 2024 | +14.0% | +24.9% | -22.5% |
| 2023 | +127.7% | +26.2% | -26.7% |
| 2022 | -59.2% | -18.2% | -62.3% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -62.3%, regained 17 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -53.2%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
Every holding is in equities. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 0.3%; the results reinvest dividends.
- QQQInvesco QQQ Trust 40%
An ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index.
- SOXLDirexion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares 40%
An ETF targeting 3x the daily return of a semiconductor index, not 3x its long-term return.
- SMHVanEck Semiconductor ETF 20%
Questions & methodology
What does the QQQ + SMH + SOXL portfolio hold?
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): An ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL): An ETF targeting 3x the daily return of a semiconductor index, not 3x its long-term return. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
What were the return and risk of the QQQ + SMH + SOXL portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +27.8% and the largest month-end drawdown was -62.3%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.61.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +27.8% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -62.3% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the QQQ + SMH + SOXL portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -62.3%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 17 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30