VTI 70% · QQQ 20% · TLT 10% CAGR +9.5%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
QQQ + TLT + VTI
VTI 70% · QQQ 20% · TLT 10% · U.S. growth · U.S. long-term Treasuries · U.S. total market
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $15,744
Invested $10,000
Gain +$5,744
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +9.5%
2.5pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -26.8%
17 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.6x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.6% | +17.7% | -7.3% |
| 2024 | +20.6% | +24.9% | -4.6% |
| 2023 | +28.9% | +26.2% | -9.6% |
| 2022 | -23.3% | -18.2% | -26.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -26.8%, regained 17 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -21.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different weights. Pick one and every figure and chart on this page switches to it.
| Allocation | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| +9.5% | -26.8% | 0.41 | |
| +7.6% | -27.3% | 0.30 |
- Annualized return
- +9.5%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -26.8%
- Return for the risk
- 0.41
- Annualized return
- +7.6%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -27.3%
- Return for the risk
- 0.30
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 90% · bonds 10%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 1.3%; the results reinvest dividends.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 70%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- QQQInvesco QQQ Trust 20%
An ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index.
- TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 10%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
Questions & methodology
What does the QQQ + TLT + VTI portfolio hold?
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): An ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
What were the return and risk of the QQQ + TLT + VTI portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +9.5% and the largest month-end drawdown was -26.8%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.41.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +9.5% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -26.8% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the QQQ + TLT + VTI portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -26.8%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 17 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30