VTI 33.34% · TIP 33.33% · VXUS 33.33% CAGR +6.5%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Margarita Portfolio
VTI 33.34% · TIP 33.33% · VXUS 33.33% · Inflation-linked bonds · U.S. total market · International equity
Scott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2006Sources (3)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $13,707
Invested $10,000
Gain +$3,707
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +6.5%
5.5pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -21.8%
18 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 14%
7 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +18.5% | +17.7% | -1.6% |
| 2024 | +9.9% | +24.9% | -2.8% |
| 2023 | +15.1% | +26.2% | -7.8% |
| 2022 | -15.7% | -18.2% | -21.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -21.8%, regained 18 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -18.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 66.7% · bonds 33.3%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.6%; the results reinvest dividends.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 33.34%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 33.33%
- VXUSVanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 33.33%
An ETF investing in equity markets outside the U.S.
Where this allocation comes fromScott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2006
Also known as: Scott Burns Margarita Portfolio · Margaritaville Portfolio
US total stock market, international stocks and inflation-protected Treasuries, one third each.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 33.34% | VTI |
| International stocks (ex-US) | 33.33% | VXUS |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 33.33% | TIP |
Burns split Vanguard's Total Market, Total International and Inflation-Protected funds into thirds. The first slice is 33.34% so the total is 100%. VXUS listed in January 2011, so history starts then.
Source: scottburns.com scottburns.com lazyportfolioetf.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Margarita Portfolio hold?
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares (VXUS): An ETF investing in equity markets outside the U.S.
What were the return and risk of the Margarita Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.5% and the largest month-end drawdown was -21.8%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.27.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.5% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -21.8% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Margarita Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -21.8%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 18 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30