BWX 25% · TIP 25% · VTI 25% · VXUS 25% CAGR +3.9%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Four Square Portfolio
BWX 25% · TIP 25% · VTI 25% · VXUS 25% · Fixed income · Inflation-linked bonds · U.S. total market
Scott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2005Sources (3)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $12,089
Invested $10,000
Gain +$2,089
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +3.9%
8.1pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -22.8%
23 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
4% even over 3 years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.2x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +15.8% | +17.7% | -0.9% |
| 2024 | +5.8% | +24.9% | -4.0% |
| 2023 | +12.5% | +26.2% | -7.7% |
| 2022 | -16.7% | -18.2% | -22.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -22.8%, regained 23 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -20.1%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: bonds 50% · equities 50%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.6%; the results reinvest dividends.
- BWXState Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF 25%
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 25%
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 25%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- VXUSVanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 25%
An ETF investing in equity markets outside the U.S.
Where this allocation comes fromScott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2005
Also known as: Scott Burns Four Square Portfolio
US stocks, international stocks, TIPS and international bonds at a quarter each.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 25% | VTI |
| International stocks (ex-US) | 25% | VXUS |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 25% | TIP |
| International Treasuries (unhedged) | 25% | BWX |
International bonds use BWX, the unhedged fund Burns named himself. BWX listed in October 2007, so history starts then.
Source: scottburns.com scottburns.com scottburns.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Four Square Portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares (VXUS): An ETF investing in equity markets outside the U.S.
What were the return and risk of the Four Square Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +3.9% and the largest month-end drawdown was -22.8%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.04.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +3.9% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -22.8% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Four Square Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -22.8%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 23 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30