BND 25% · GLD 25% · VTI 25% · VXUS 25% CAGR +9.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
BND + GLD + VTI + VXUS
BND 25% · GLD 25% · VTI 25% · VXUS 25% · Fixed income · Gold · U.S. total market
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $15,469
Invested $10,000
Gain +$5,469
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +9.1%
2.9pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -18.9%
15 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.5x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +28.9% | +17.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | +14.0% | +24.9% | -2.3% |
| 2023 | +15.2% | +26.2% | -5.9% |
| 2022 | -12.2% | -18.2% | -18.9% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -18.9%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -16.3%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 50% · bonds 25% · commodities 25%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 1.9%; the results reinvest dividends.
- BNDVanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares 25%
An ETF investing across the U.S. bond market.
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares 25%
An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 25%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- VXUSVanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares 25%
An ETF investing in equity markets outside the U.S.
Questions & methodology
What does the BND + GLD + VTI + VXUS portfolio hold?
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares (BND): An ETF investing across the U.S. bond market. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): An investment product providing exposure to gold prices. Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund ETF Shares (VXUS): An ETF investing in equity markets outside the U.S.
What were the return and risk of the BND + GLD + VTI + VXUS portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +9.1% and the largest month-end drawdown was -18.9%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.50.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +9.1% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -18.9% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the BND + GLD + VTI + VXUS portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -18.9%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30