AVUV 25% · SPY 25% · VIOO 25% · VTV 25% CAGR +10.7%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
4 Fund Combo
AVUV 25% · SPY 25% · VIOO 25% · VTV 25% · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. large cap · U.S. value
Paul Merriman · MarketWatch column · 2020Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $16,605
Invested $10,000
Gain +$6,605
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +10.7%
1.3pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -19.4%
10 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.7x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +11.7% | +17.7% | -11.0% |
| 2024 | +14.8% | +24.9% | -6.2% |
| 2023 | +18.8% | +26.2% | -10.8% |
| 2022 | -10.5% | -18.2% | -19.4% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -19.4%, regained 10 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -15.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
Every holding is in equities. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 1.3%; the results reinvest dividends.
- AVUVAvantis US Small Cap Value ETF 25%
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 25%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- VIOOVanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares 25%
- VTVVanguard Morningstar Value ETF 25%
Where this allocation comes fromPaul Merriman · MarketWatch column · 2020
Also known as: Four Fund Combo · Paul Merriman 4 Fund Combo
S&P 500, US large-cap value, US small caps and US small-cap value at 25% each, tilting US stocks toward value and small caps.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 25% | SPY |
| US large-cap value | 25% | VTV |
| US small-cap blend | 25% | VIOO |
| US small-cap value | 25% | AVUV |
The small-cap slice uses VIOO, which tracks the same S&P 600 index as Merriman's IJR. Small-cap value uses AVUV, which listed in September 2019, so history starts then.
Source: irp.cdn-website.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the 4 Fund Combo portfolio hold?
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares (VIOO) Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF (VTV)
What were the return and risk of the 4 Fund Combo portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +10.7% and the largest month-end drawdown was -19.4%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.46.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +10.7% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -19.4% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the 4 Fund Combo portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -19.4%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 10 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30