SPY 57% · AGG 37% · BTC-USD 3% · ETH-USD 3% CAGR +7.5%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
60/40 Portfolio with 6% Crypto
SPY 57% · AGG 37% · BTC-USD 3% · ETH-USD 3% · Fixed income · Crypto assets · U.S. large cap
VanEck (Matthew Sigel et al.) · Optimal Crypto Allocation for Portfolios · 2024Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $14,374
Invested $10,000
Gain +$4,374
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +7.5%
4.4pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -22.4%
16 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 0 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +13.2% | +17.7% | -5.1% |
| 2024 | +19.4% | +24.9% | -4.1% |
| 2023 | +22.9% | +26.2% | -5.9% |
| 2022 | -19.1% | -18.2% | -22.4% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -22.4%, regained 16 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -18.3%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 57% · bonds 37% · crypto 6%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.1%; the results reinvest dividends.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 57%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF 37%
An ETF investing in the U.S. investment-grade bond market.
- BTC-USDBitcoin USD 3%
- ETH-USDEthereum USD 3%
Where this allocation comes fromVanEck (Matthew Sigel et al.) · Optimal Crypto Allocation for Portfolios · 2024
Also known as: 60/40 + 6% Crypto (Bitcoin 3 / Ether 3) · VanEck Optimal Crypto Allocation
S&P 500 57, US aggregate bonds 37, bitcoin 3 and ether 3, the best risk-adjusted mix in a VanEck study.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 57% | SPY |
| US aggregate bonds | 37% | AGG |
| Bitcoin | 3% | BTC-USD |
| Ether | 3% | ETH-USD |
The mix was picked after the fact from 2015–2024 returns, with crypto capped at 6% in the study. VanEck manages crypto ETFs.
Source: vaneck.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the 60/40 Portfolio with 6% Crypto hold?
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG): An ETF investing in the U.S. investment-grade bond market. Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Ethereum USD (ETH-USD)
What were the return and risk of the 60/40 Portfolio with 6% Crypto?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +7.5% and the largest month-end drawdown was -22.4%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.33.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +7.5% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -22.4% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the 60/40 Portfolio with 6% Crypto fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -22.4%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 16 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30