GLD 25% · SHV 25% · SPY 25% · TLT 25% CAGR +6.2%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
GLD 25% · SHV 25% · SPY 25% · TLT 25% · Gold · U.S. short-term Treasuries · U.S. large cap
Harry Browne · Fail-Safe Investing · 1999Sources (2)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $13,517
Invested $10,000
Gain +$3,517
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +6.2%
5.8pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -16.2%
18 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +20.8% | +17.7% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | +11.6% | +24.9% | -2.4% |
| 2023 | +11.8% | +26.2% | -5.6% |
| 2022 | -12.7% | -18.2% | -16.2% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -16.2%, regained 18 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -13.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: bonds 50% · commodities 25% · equities 25%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.4%; the results reinvest dividends.
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares 25%
An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
- SHViShares 0–1 Year Treasury Bond ETF 25%
An ETF investing in short-term U.S. Treasury securities.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 25%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 25%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
Where this allocation comes fromHarry Browne · Fail-Safe Investing · 1999
Also known as: Permanent Portfolio
Stocks, long-term Treasuries, gold and cash at 25% each, so that one asset holds up in any economic regime.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 25% | SPY |
| US long-term Treasuries | 25% | TLT |
| Gold | 25% | GLD |
| Cash (US Treasury bills) | 25% | SHV |
Browne held the cash quarter in Treasury bills. Lifolio uses SHV (Treasuries maturing within a year), so history starts in January 2007.
The source rebalances once a year. Figures on this page use Lifolio's standard monthly rebalancing.
Source: portfoliocharts.com en.wikipedia.org
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio hold?
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): An investment product providing exposure to gold prices. iShares 0–1 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHV): An ETF investing in short-term U.S. Treasury securities. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
What were the return and risk of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.2% and the largest month-end drawdown was -16.2%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.29.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.2% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -16.2% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -16.2%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 18 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30