AVDV 10% · AVUV 10% · EFV 10% · IWD 10% · VEA 10% · VIOO 10% · VNQ 10% · VOO 10% · VSS 10% · VWO 10% CAGR +9.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
AVDV 10% · AVUV 10% · EFV 10% · IWD 10% · VEA 10% · VIOO 10% · VNQ 10% · VOO 10% · VSS 10% · VWO 10% · International equity · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. value
Paul Merriman · Merriman Financial Education Foundation, Ultimate Buy and Hold tables · 2026Sources (3)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $15,441
Invested $10,000
Gain +$5,441
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +9.1%
2.9pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -23.8%
15 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.5x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +22.7% | +17.7% | -1.5% |
| 2024 | +9.5% | +24.9% | -4.5% |
| 2023 | +16.9% | +26.2% | -10.9% |
| 2022 | -14.4% | -18.2% | -23.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -23.8%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -20.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 90% · real estate 10%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.4%; the results reinvest dividends.
- AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF 10%
- AVUVAvantis US Small Cap Value ETF 10%
- EFViShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 10%
- IWDiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 10%
- VEAVanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- VIOOVanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF 10%
A Vanguard ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- VSSVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
Where this allocation comes fromPaul Merriman · Merriman Financial Education Foundation, Ultimate Buy and Hold tables · 2026
Also known as: Paul Merriman Ultimate Buy and Hold · Ultimate Buy & Hold Equity Portfolio
An all-stock mix with 10% in each of ten equity classes: US and international large, value, small and small value, REITs and emerging markets.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 10% | VOO |
| US large-cap value | 10% | IWD |
| US small-cap blend | 10% | VIOO |
| US small-cap value | 10% | AVUV |
| US REITs | 10% | VNQ |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 10% | VEA |
| International large-cap value | 10% | EFV |
| International small caps | 10% | VSS |
| International small-cap value | 10% | AVDV |
| Emerging-market stocks | 10% | VWO |
Uses the ETFs Merriman lists; US large value uses IWD, which tracks the same Russell 1000 Value index as his VONV. AVDV listed in September 2019, so history starts then.
Source: irp.cdn-website.com paulmerriman.com portfoliocharts.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio hold?
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF (AVDV) Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV) iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV) iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VEA) Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Index Fund ETF Shares (VIOO) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO): A Vanguard ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VSS) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO)
What were the return and risk of the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +9.1% and the largest month-end drawdown was -23.8%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.39.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +9.1% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -23.8% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -23.8%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30