TLT 40% · VTI 30% · IEF 15% · DBC 7.5% · GLD 7.5% CAGR +2.2%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
All Seasons Portfolio
TLT 40% · VTI 30% · IEF 15% · DBC 7.5% · GLD 7.5% · Commodities · Gold · U.S. intermediate Treasuries
Ray Dalio, interviewed by Tony Robbins · Money: Master the Game · 2014Sources (2)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $11,142
Invested $10,000
Gain +$1,142
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +2.2%
9.8pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -22.2%
23 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 22%
11 of 49 past windows
16% even over 3 years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.1x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 0 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +13.0% | +17.7% | -2.1% |
| 2024 | +5.3% | +24.9% | -4.0% |
| 2023 | +9.8% | +26.2% | -9.9% |
| 2022 | -19.7% | -18.2% | -21.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -22.2%, regained 23 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -19.1%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: bonds 55% · equities 30% · commodities 15%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 3.0%; the results reinvest dividends.
- TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 40%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 30%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 15%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years.
- DBCInvesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund 7.5%
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares 7.5%
An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
Where this allocation comes fromRay Dalio, interviewed by Tony Robbins · Money: Master the Game · 2014
Also known as: All Weather Portfolio · Ray Dalio All Weather Portfolio · Tony Robbins All Seasons Portfolio
Stocks 30, long-term Treasuries 40, intermediate Treasuries 15, gold 7.5 and commodities 7.5, a simplified retail mix described by Ray Dalio.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US stocks | 30% | VTI |
| US long-term Treasuries | 40% | TLT |
| US intermediate-term Treasuries | 15% | IEF |
| Gold | 7.5% | GLD |
| Commodities | 7.5% | DBC |
Robbins's book calls this retail mix the All Seasons portfolio; it is not Bridgewater's institutional All Weather fund. The book names the S&P 500 or a broader index for the stock slice; Lifolio uses VTI. Long-term means 20–25-year and intermediate means 7–10-year Treasuries.
The source rebalances once a year. Figures on this page use Lifolio's standard monthly rebalancing.
Source: portfoliocharts.com rationalreminder.ca
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the All Seasons Portfolio hold?
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years. Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years. Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
What were the return and risk of the All Seasons Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +2.2% and the largest month-end drawdown was -22.2%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is -0.11.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +2.2% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -22.2% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the All Seasons Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -22.2%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2023.10. It regained the old high 23 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30