BWX 10% · EFA 10% · EFV 10% · IWD 10% · IWN 10% · TIP 10% · VNQ 10% · VTI 10% · VWO 10% · XLE 10% CAGR +8.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
10 Speed Portfolio
BWX 10% · EFA 10% · EFV 10% · IWD 10% · IWN 10% · TIP 10% · VNQ 10% · VTI 10% · VWO 10% · XLE 10% · Fixed income · International equity · U.S. value
Scott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2008Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $14,792
Invested $10,000
Gain +$4,792
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +8.1%
3.8pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -18.0%
15 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 14%
7 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.5x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.9% | +17.7% | -1.9% |
| 2024 | +7.3% | +24.9% | -4.8% |
| 2023 | +12.0% | +26.2% | -9.0% |
| 2022 | -8.8% | -18.2% | -18.0% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -18.0%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -17.2%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 70% · bonds 20% · real estate 10%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.7%; the results reinvest dividends.
- BWXState Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF 10%
- EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF 10%
- EFViShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF 10%
- IWDiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 10%
- IWNiShares Russell 2000 Value ETF 10%
A U.S. small-cap value ETF tracking the Russell 2000 Value Index.
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 10%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 10%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
- XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF 10%
Where this allocation comes fromScott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2008
Also known as: Scott Burns 10 Speed Portfolio
Nine Emerging plus international large-cap value, 10% each across ten assets.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 10% | VTI |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 10% | TIP |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 10% | EFA |
| International Treasuries (unhedged) | 10% | BWX |
| US REITs | 10% | VNQ |
| Energy stocks | 10% | XLE |
| US large-cap value | 10% | IWD |
| US small-cap value | 10% | IWN |
| Emerging-market stocks | 10% | VWO |
| International large-cap value | 10% | EFV |
International bonds use BWX, the unhedged fund Burns named himself. BWX listed in October 2007, so history starts then.
Source: scottburns.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the 10 Speed Portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF (EFV) iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN): A U.S. small-cap value ETF tracking the Russell 2000 Value Index. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO) State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
What were the return and risk of the 10 Speed Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +8.1% and the largest month-end drawdown was -18.0%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.37.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +8.1% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -18.0% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the 10 Speed Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -18.0%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30