VTI 11.12% · BWX 11.11% · EFA 11.11% · IWD 11.11% · IWN 11.11% · TIP 11.11% · VNQ 11.11% · VWO 11.11% · XLE 11.11% CAGR +7.5%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Nine Emerging Portfolio
VTI 11.12% · BWX 11.11% · EFA 11.11% · IWD 11.11% · IWN 11.11% · TIP 11.11% · VNQ 11.11% · VWO 11.11% · XLE 11.11% · Fixed income · International equity · U.S. value
Scott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2008Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $14,355
Invested $10,000
Gain +$4,355
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +7.5%
4.5pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -17.7%
15 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +14.3% | +17.7% | -2.8% |
| 2024 | +7.5% | +24.9% | -5.0% |
| 2023 | +11.3% | +26.2% | -9.1% |
| 2022 | -9.2% | -18.2% | -17.7% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -17.7%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -16.6%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 66.7% · bonds 22.2% · real estate 11.1%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.5%; the results reinvest dividends.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 11.12%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- BWXState Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF 11.11%
- EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF 11.11%
- IWDiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 11.11%
- IWNiShares Russell 2000 Value ETF 11.11%
A U.S. small-cap value ETF tracking the Russell 2000 Value Index.
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 11.11%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 11.11%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 11.11%
- XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF 11.11%
Where this allocation comes fromScott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2008
Also known as: Scott Burns Nine Emerging Portfolio
Eight Value 2 plus emerging-market stocks, a ninth each.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 11.12% | VTI |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 11.11% | TIP |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 11.11% | EFA |
| International Treasuries (unhedged) | 11.11% | BWX |
| US REITs | 11.11% | VNQ |
| Energy stocks | 11.11% | XLE |
| US large-cap value | 11.11% | IWD |
| US small-cap value | 11.11% | IWN |
| Emerging-market stocks | 11.11% | VWO |
International bonds use BWX, the unhedged fund Burns named himself. BWX listed in October 2007, so history starts then.
Source: scottburns.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Nine Emerging Portfolio hold?
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. State Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN): A U.S. small-cap value ETF tracking the Russell 2000 Value Index. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO) State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
What were the return and risk of the Nine Emerging Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +7.5% and the largest month-end drawdown was -17.7%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.33.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +7.5% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -17.7% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Nine Emerging Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -17.7%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30