BWX 14.29% · EFA 14.29% · TIP 14.29% · VTI 14.29% · IWD 14.28% · VNQ 14.28% · XLE 14.28% CAGR +7.7%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Seven Value Portfolio
BWX 14.29% · EFA 14.29% · TIP 14.29% · VTI 14.29% · IWD 14.28% · VNQ 14.28% · XLE 14.28% · Fixed income · International equity · U.S. value
Scott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2008Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $14,503
Invested $10,000
Gain +$4,503
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +7.7%
4.3pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -16.9%
15 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 14%
7 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.5x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +12.9% | +17.7% | -2.3% |
| 2024 | +6.8% | +24.9% | -5.1% |
| 2023 | +10.9% | +26.2% | -8.0% |
| 2022 | -7.3% | -18.2% | -16.9% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -16.9%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -15.5%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 57.1% · bonds 28.6% · real estate 14.3%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.6%; the results reinvest dividends.
- BWXState Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF 14.29%
- EFAiShares MSCI EAFE ETF 14.29%
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 14.29%
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 14.29%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- IWDiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF 14.28%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 14.28%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- XLEState Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF 14.28%
Where this allocation comes fromScott Burns · Newspaper column (Dallas Morning News) · 2008
Also known as: Scott Burns Seven Value Portfolio
Six building blocks plus US large-cap value, a seventh each.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 14.29% | VTI |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 14.29% | TIP |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 14.29% | EFA |
| International Treasuries (unhedged) | 14.29% | BWX |
| US REITs | 14.28% | VNQ |
| Energy stocks | 14.28% | XLE |
| US large-cap value | 14.28% | IWD |
International bonds use BWX, the unhedged fund Burns named himself. BWX listed in October 2007, so history starts then.
Source: scottburns.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Seven Value Portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR Bloomberg International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
What were the return and risk of the Seven Value Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +7.7% and the largest month-end drawdown was -16.9%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.35.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +7.7% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -16.9% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Seven Value Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -16.9%, from a high in 2022.03 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30