VTI 30% · VNQ 20% · IEF 15% · TIP 15% · VEA 15% · VWO 5% CAGR +5.1%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Swensen Portfolio
VTI 30% · VNQ 20% · IEF 15% · TIP 15% · VEA 15% · VWO 5% · U.S. intermediate Treasuries · Inflation-linked bonds · International equity
David Swensen · Unconventional Success · 2005Sources (3)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $12,824
Invested $10,000
Gain +$2,824
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +5.1%
6.9pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -23.1%
22 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.3x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 0 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +14.3% | +17.7% | -2.1% |
| 2024 | +9.1% | +24.9% | -4.1% |
| 2023 | +14.4% | +26.2% | -9.0% |
| 2022 | -18.2% | -18.2% | -23.1% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -23.1%, regained 22 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -19.3%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different weights. Pick one and every figure and chart on this page switches to it.
| Allocation | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| +5.3% | -22.8% | 0.17 | |
| +5.1% | -23.1% | 0.15 |
- Annualized return
- +5.3%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -22.8%
- Return for the risk
- 0.17
- Annualized return
- +5.1%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -23.1%
- Return for the risk
- 0.15
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 50% · bonds 30% · real estate 20%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.8%; the results reinvest dividends.
- VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF 30%
An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market.
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 20%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 15%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years.
- TIPiShares TIPS Bond ETF 15%
- VEAVanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 15%
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 5%
Where this allocation comes fromDavid Swensen · Unconventional Success · 2005
Also known as: David Swensen Portfolio · David Swensen Lazy Portfolio · Unconventional Success portfolio
US stocks 30, developed stocks 15, emerging stocks 5, REITs 20, US Treasuries 15 and TIPS 15, recommended to individuals by Yale's endowment chief.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US total stock market | 30% | VTI |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 15% | VEA |
| Emerging-market stocks | 5% | VWO |
| US REITs | 20% | VNQ |
| US intermediate-term Treasuries | 15% | IEF |
| US inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS) | 15% | TIP |
The book does not set a Treasury maturity; Lifolio uses intermediate Treasuries (IEF, 7–10 years). This is not Yale's endowment portfolio, and Yale is not involved.
Source: yalealumnimagazine.com portfoliocharts.com optimizedportfolio.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Swensen Portfolio hold?
Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (VTI): An ETF investing across the U.S. equity market. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VEA) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO)
What were the return and risk of the Swensen Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +5.1% and the largest month-end drawdown was -23.1%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.15.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +5.1% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -23.1% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Swensen Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -23.1%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 22 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30