GLD 20% · SHY 20% · SPY 20% · TLT 20% · VBR 20% CAGR +6.6%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Golden Butterfly Portfolio
GLD 20% · SHY 20% · SPY 20% · TLT 20% · VBR 20% · Gold · U.S. short-term Treasuries · U.S. large cap
Tyler (Portfolio Charts) · Portfolio Charts · 2016Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $13,738
Invested $10,000
Gain +$3,738
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +6.6%
5.4pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -17.4%
18 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 14%
7 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +18.7% | +17.7% | -0.4% |
| 2024 | +11.6% | +24.9% | -3.6% |
| 2023 | +12.7% | +26.2% | -7.1% |
| 2022 | -12.7% | -18.2% | -17.4% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -17.4%, regained 18 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -14.7%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: bonds 40% · equities 40% · commodities 20%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.2%; the results reinvest dividends.
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares 20%
An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
- SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 20%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1–3 years.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 20%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 20%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
- VBRVanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF 20%
Where this allocation comes fromTyler (Portfolio Charts) · Portfolio Charts · 2016
Also known as: Golden Butterfly · Tyler Golden Butterfly Portfolio
US large caps, US small-cap value, long-term Treasuries, short-term Treasuries and gold at 20% each: the Permanent Portfolio with a growth tilt.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US large-cap blend | 20% | SPY |
| US small-cap value | 20% | VBR |
| US long-term Treasuries | 20% | TLT |
| US short-term Treasuries | 20% | SHY |
| Gold | 20% | GLD |
The US small-cap value slice uses VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF).
Source: portfoliocharts.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Golden Butterfly Portfolio hold?
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): An investment product providing exposure to gold prices. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1–3 years. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years. Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR)
What were the return and risk of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.6% and the largest month-end drawdown was -17.4%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.29.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.6% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -17.4% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Golden Butterfly Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -17.4%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 18 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30