IEF 15% · SPY 15% · VEA 15% · VNQ 15% · GLD 10% · SHV 10% · VBR 10% · VWO 10% CAGR +6.9%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Pinwheel Portfolio
IEF 15% · SPY 15% · VEA 15% · VNQ 15% · GLD 10% · SHV 10% · VBR 10% · VWO 10% · Gold · U.S. intermediate Treasuries · U.S. short-term Treasuries
Tyler (Portfolio Charts) · Portfolio Charts · 2018Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $13,933
Invested $10,000
Gain +$3,933
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +6.9%
5.1pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -19.8%
18 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.4x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +19.0% | +17.7% | -0.6% |
| 2024 | +10.3% | +24.9% | -3.5% |
| 2023 | +13.5% | +26.2% | -8.0% |
| 2022 | -13.8% | -18.2% | -19.8% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -19.8%, regained 18 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -16.9%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 50% · bonds 25% · real estate 15% · commodities 10%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.4%; the results reinvest dividends.
- IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 15%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 15%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- VEAVanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 15%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 15%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares 10%
An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
- SHViShares 0–1 Year Treasury Bond ETF 10%
An ETF investing in short-term U.S. Treasury securities.
- VBRVanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF 10%
- VWOVanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
Where this allocation comes fromTyler (Portfolio Charts) · Portfolio Charts · 2018
Also known as: Tyler Pinwheel Portfolio
Eight assets: US large caps 15, small-cap value 10, developed stocks 15, emerging stocks 10, intermediate Treasuries 15, cash 10, REITs 15 and gold 10.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US large-cap blend | 15% | SPY |
| US small-cap value | 10% | VBR |
| Developed-market stocks (ex-US) | 15% | VEA |
| Emerging-market stocks | 10% | VWO |
| US intermediate-term Treasuries | 15% | IEF |
| Cash (US Treasury bills) | 10% | SHV |
| US REITs | 15% | VNQ |
| Gold | 10% | GLD |
The US small-cap value slice uses VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF).
Source: portfoliocharts.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Pinwheel Portfolio hold?
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 7–10 years. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VEA) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): An investment product providing exposure to gold prices. iShares 0–1 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHV): An ETF investing in short-term U.S. Treasury securities. Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index Fund ETF Shares (VWO)
What were the return and risk of the Pinwheel Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.9% and the largest month-end drawdown was -19.8%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.30.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +6.9% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -19.8% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Pinwheel Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -19.8%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 18 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30