GLD 20% · VBR 20% · VGLT 20% · VSS 20% · VNQ 10% · VNQI 10% CAGR +4.8%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Weird Portfolio
GLD 20% · VBR 20% · VGLT 20% · VSS 20% · VNQ 10% · VNQI 10% · Gold · U.S. small & mid cap · U.S. long-term Treasuries
Value Stock Geek (pen name) · The Weird Portfolio · 2021Sources (3)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $12,627
Invested $10,000
Gain +$2,627
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +4.8%
7.2pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -23.4%
23 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
4% even over 3 years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.3x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 2 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +22.8% | +17.7% | -0.3% |
| 2024 | +7.2% | +24.9% | -5.2% |
| 2023 | +11.8% | +26.2% | -10.3% |
| 2022 | -17.2% | -18.2% | -23.4% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -23.4%, regained 23 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -20.0%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 40% · commodities 20% · bonds 20% · real estate 20%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.8%; the results reinvest dividends.
- GLDSPDR Gold Shares 20%
An investment product providing exposure to gold prices.
- VBRVanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF 20%
- VGLTVanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares 20%
- VSSVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares 20%
- VNQVanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities.
- VNQIVanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares 10%
Where this allocation comes fromValue Stock Geek (pen name) · The Weird Portfolio · 2021
Also known as: The Weird Portfolio · Value Stock Geek Weird Portfolio
US small-cap value, international small caps, long Treasuries and gold at 20% each, plus US and international REITs at 10% each.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| US small-cap value | 20% | VBR |
| International small caps | 20% | VSS |
| US long-term Treasuries | 20% | VGLT |
| US REITs | 10% | VNQ |
| International REITs | 10% | VNQI |
| Gold | 20% | GLD |
Uses the Vanguard ETFs the author names in the book; gold uses GLD, which holds the same bullion as his SGOL.
Source: valuestockgeek.medium.com theinvestorspodcast.com portfoliocharts.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Weird Portfolio hold?
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): An investment product providing exposure to gold prices. Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR) Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares (VGLT) Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares (VSS) Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ): An ETF investing in U.S. real estate equities. Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQI)
What were the return and risk of the Weird Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +4.8% and the largest month-end drawdown was -23.4%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.12.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +4.8% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -23.4% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Weird Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -23.4%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 23 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30