SPY 90% · SHY 10% CAGR +11.0%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio
SPY 90% · SHY 10% · U.S. short-term Treasuries · U.S. large cap
Warren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway 2013 shareholder letter · 2014Sources (1)
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $16,877
Invested $10,000
Gain +$6,877
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +11.0%
0.9pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -22.1%
15 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.7x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 1 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +16.4% | +17.7% | -6.6% |
| 2024 | +22.7% | +24.9% | -3.7% |
| 2023 | +23.9% | +26.2% | -7.4% |
| 2022 | -16.7% | -18.2% | -22.1% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -22.1%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -18.1%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 90% · bonds 10%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 1.3%; the results reinvest dividends.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 90%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 10%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1–3 years.
Where this allocation comes fromWarren Buffett · Berkshire Hathaway 2013 shareholder letter · 2014
Also known as: Buffett 90/10 · Warren Buffett's 90/10 rule
90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund and 10% in short-term government bonds, the instruction Warren Buffett gave for a bequest.
| Asset in the source | Weight | Lifolio ETF |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 90% | SPY |
| US short-term Treasuries | 10% | SHY |
This is not a portfolio Buffett or Berkshire holds; it is the instruction for his wife's bequest written in the letter.
Source: berkshirehathaway.com
Lifolio is not affiliated with or endorsed by the people or organizations cited. Figures are historical simulations under Lifolio's standard conditions. Sources checked 2026-11-01.
Questions & methodology
What does the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 1–3 years.
What were the return and risk of the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +11.0% and the largest month-end drawdown was -22.1%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.54.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +11.0% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -22.1% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -22.1%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30