SPY 60% · TLT 40% CAGR +3.9%
SPY CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
SPY + TLT
SPY 60% · TLT 40% · U.S. large cap · U.S. long-term Treasuries
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $12,078
Invested $10,000
Gain +$2,078
SPY alone: $17,597
Annualized return +3.9%
8.1pp behind SPY
Max drawdown · month-end -26.2%
24 months from trough to recovery
SPY -23.9%
Loss after a 1-year hold 16%
8 of 49 past windows
4% even over 3 years
SPY 12%
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.2x; SPY grew 1.8x over the same period.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss, 0 ahead of SPY.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | SPY | In-year low |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +12.4% | +17.7% | -4.9% |
| 2024 | +10.7% | +24.9% | -5.0% |
| 2023 | +16.4% | +26.2% | -11.3% |
| 2022 | -23.3% | -18.2% | -26.2% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -26.2%, regained 24 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -22.6%, while SPY returned -19.7%.
Compare allocations
The same holdings at different weights. Pick one and every figure and chart on this page switches to it.
| Allocation | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3.9% | -26.2% | 0.06 | 24 | |
| +1.9% | -26.8% | -0.09 | 4 | |
| -2.1% | -32.4% | -0.39 | 1 |
- Annualized return
- +3.9%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -26.2%
- Return for the risk
- 0.06
- Runs in 90 days
- 24
- Annualized return
- +1.9%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -26.8%
- Return for the risk
- -0.09
- Runs in 90 days
- 4
- Annualized return
- -2.1%
- Max drawdown · month-end
- -32.4%
- Return for the risk
- -0.39
- Runs in 90 days
- 1
Exploration on Lifolio; these counts do not establish investment performance or preference.
Holdings
By asset class: equities 60% · bonds 40%. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 2.5%; the results reinvest dividends.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 60%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
- TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF 40%
An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
Questions & methodology
What does the SPY + TLT portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT): An ETF investing in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities over 20 years.
What were the return and risk of the SPY + TLT portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +3.9% and the largest month-end drawdown was -26.2%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.06.
How did it compare with holding SPY alone?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +3.9% for these weights and +12.0% for SPY. Over the same window the largest month-end drawdown was -26.2% for these weights and -23.9% for SPY.
How far did the SPY + TLT portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -26.2%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 24 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30· Usage statistics through: 2026.11.02