SPY 100% CAGR +12.0%
Shaded: major market crises Bear Market (2022)
SPY
SPY 100% · U.S. large cap
5yr · 2021.10 – 2026.10 · $10,000 lump sum · monthly rebalancing · dividends reinvested · no taxes or fees · month-end
Final Balance $17,597
Invested $10,000
Gain +$7,597
Annualized return +12.0%
Max drawdown · month-end -23.9%
15 months from trough to recovery
Loss after a 1-year hold 12%
6 of 49 past windows
None when held 3+ years
Performance ⌄
Performance
Over 5 years it grew 1.8x.
Calendar-year returns
Of 4 complete years: 1 with a loss.
Show as a table
| Year | Selected allocation | In-year low |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +17.7% | -7.6% |
| 2024 | +24.9% | -4.0% |
| 2023 | +26.2% | -8.3% |
| 2022 | -18.2% | -23.9% |
Depending on when you bought
Every month in the window taken as a start, held one, three or five years.
Observed windows overlap and are not independent samples. These shares are not probabilities of future gains.
Risk & recovery
The deepest fall was -23.9%, regained 15 months after the low. During the Bear Market (2022) it returned -19.7%.
Holdings
Every holding is in equities. Its dividend yield over the last 12 months was 1.0%; the results reinvest dividends.
- SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 100%
A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
Questions & methodology
What does the SPY portfolio hold?
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): A U.S. large-cap equity ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.
What were the return and risk of the SPY portfolio?
From 2021.10 to 2026.10, the annualized return was +12.0% and the largest month-end drawdown was -23.9%. The Sharpe ratio (return for the risk) is 0.56.
How far did the SPY portfolio fall, and how long did it take to get back?
Over the selected 5 years, the largest month-end decline was -23.9%, from a high in 2021.12 to a low in 2022.09. It regained the old high 15 months after the low.
Are dividends, taxes and exchange rates included?
Dividends are reinvested and results are in USD. Taxes, currency moves against your home currency and trading fees are not included. These results use US-listed ETFs; Korea-listed ETFs such as KODEX and TIGER can be added in the backtest.
The server calculates portfolio examples and actual user allocations with the same period, starting balance and settings. Validated metrics and their supporting charts are shown together.
Price data through: 2026.10.30· Usage statistics through: 2026.11.02